Mercury Prize 2026: here are the bookies’ odds for who will win

By VMZ Staff on October 21, 2026

Mercury Prize to return to Newcastle for 2026. It will return to the Utilita Arena on October 22

The awards will take place at the Utilita Arena on Thursday (October 22), and celebrate some of 2025 and 2026’s most acclaimed British and Irish records.

Performances on the night will come from 10 artists on this year’s 12-album shortlist, including Florence + The Machine, Raye, JADE, Olivia Dean and more, and ahead of things kicking off in two days time, the bookies have shared their odds for who might take the trophy.

It is Olivia Dean who is at the top of their list with the best odds, with William Hill naming her as the 3/1 favourite to win with her critically acclaimed album ‘The Art Of Loving’. She is followed by Nia Archives who has 4/1 odds with her album ‘Emotional Junglist’.

The bookies odds for the 2026 Mercury Prize are:
Olivia Dean – 3/1
Nia Archives – 4/1
Raye – 9/2
Dave – 7/1
Kojey Radical – 9/1
Knats – 9/1
Dove Ellis – 10/1
Florence + The Machine – 10/1
Suede – 12/1
JADE – 12/1
Various Artists For War Child – 14/1
Paul McCartney – 16/1

Paul McCartney, JADE, Nia Archives, Dave, Suede, Florence + The Machine, Olivia Dean, RAYE and Dove Ellis are all up for the Mercury Prize, with the War Child ‘Help(2)‘ compilation rounding out the nominations.

 

Some commented on McCartney’s inclusion on the list, which will mark his first time being nominated for a Mercury. “2026 music scene is so wild even Paul McCartney is competing with Nia Archives,” one fan remarked, while another said: “Paul McCartney being shortlisted was not on my bingo card this year.”

The announcement comes following the biggest year yet for the awards in 2025, where it took place in Newcastle – the first time in its history that it was held outside of London.

Now, organisers have shared that they have teamed up with Newcastle City Council and will be hosting the 2026 edition of the ceremony in the city for the second consecutive year. The event will be held on Thursday October 22 at the Utilita Arena.

As ever, the night will see 12 artists shortlisted for album of the year, and the live event will see many of which take to the stage for a live performance, before the winner is announced at the end of the night. As usual, the Prize’s broadcast partner BBC Music will provide coverage of the event.

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